Betting on Premier League: Gameweek 33
2021/04/21 10:47

There are still a few matches left in Gameweek 32, but there are zero days between gameweek so there isn't a perfect time to preview Gameweek 33. Unlike the current week, which features a match every day, Saturday and Sunday are back to almost normal, with three matches each day.

The Super League took over our conversations recently, and teams like Chelsea and Liverpool fighting for a spot in the top four won't bring the same excitement since they aren't playing for Champions League. For now, it's best to take things normally until something concrete comes out about the future of these teams. Maybe players from the big clubs will protest; maybe not. It's best to assume these matches will be played without any problems. Fingers crossed.

The more important news is that I hit a few things spot on last week. 

"If you don't trust the Hammers, over 2.5 goals is at -105 even though I think this has the potential to hit four or five goals."

"A lot of people will look at an Arsenal and Manchester United moneyline parlay Sunday, but I want you to know one of those teams won't win."

Hey, we can't all predict the future.

THE WEEK AHEAD

I'll try and build off those predictions, but once you get too confident in betting, that's when things fall apart. Stay humble and assume you're going to lose every bet. That's my model.

It's almost funny how big teams are continually overrated and it's mainly because they have the most fans (and bettors). Arsenal are a -112 (down from -121) home favorite against Everton on Friday and there are few reasons to take the Gunners, which means they'll probably win 3-0. When these teams met in December, the odds were dead even and Everton won 2-1 in a match that had two shots on target from both sides. Nothing about that game or the way Arsenal play on a week-to-week basis leads to them being a sizable favorite against a good side.

Everton are equally inconsistent, but they seem to play up to competition, which led to a 2-0 win at Liverpool a couple months ago. Everton got a full week off after drawing Tottenham last Friday, while Arsenal escaped with a point at home against Fulham on Sunday.  Even worse, they lost Alexandre Lacazette to a hamstring injury and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has yet to appear since contracting malaria.

Everton at +310 to win are great odds, but if you don't think they can get three points, a win or draw is almost plus odds at -107

Saturday features three decent-sized favorites with Liverpool at -360 (was -400) against Newcastle the biggest. When they met at the end of December, Liverpool were a -360 favorite and it finished scoreless. I'm never comfortable betting Newcastle, and they almost let a 2-0 lead against 10-man West Ham slip away last weekend, but they're healthy and can provide attacking threats with Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson. The safe move is Newcastle +2 at -175 while +1.5 is at +102. That said, I think either Liverpool run away and win by a few goals or this stays even, so it almost makes more sense to take a chance on Newcastle win or draw at +290. 

I might like Brighton to win (-137) the most Saturday because they're playing Sheffield United, who can't get anything to go right. Still, Chelsea (-136) aren't a bad option, mainly because West Ham have numerous starters out with injury and Jesse Lingard could miss out after leaving the prior match early.

I think the Wolves-Burnley match is the perfect time to go against the grain. They may be two of the more defensive sides in the league, but Burnley are struggling to contain anyone and it finished 2-1 earlier in the season with the teams combining for 25 shots. I don't like taking Wolves overs, but when two defensive teams play, the over seems to hit more often than not and you can get plus odds (+128) for over 2.5 goals in this one.

Leeds have four points from their last two matches against Manchester City and Liverpool, and you can get them to win or draw at +100 against Man United. Leeds have been overvalued at times this season, but against the top sides, they are always ripe for an upset, and even the absence of Raphinha didn't stop them from getting a point against Liverpool.

Jack Grealish remains out, along with Trezeguet and Morgan Sanson, and that leads me to West Brom, who I also like against Leicester City on Thursday. No, I don't like betting on a team two games in advance with just two full days of rest, but the Baggies are rolling. Villa have been unreliable in every match without Grealish.

Sure, Villa have some wins, but they've taken four points in their last four home matches, including three against Fulham after scoring three goals in the final 12 minutes. If anything, these teams are close to even and you can get West Brom win or draw at +105. For more money, a draw no bet is +230 and if West Brom snipe another 3-0 win, they're +1600 at -1.75. Wait, what? West Brom just beat Southampton and Chelsea by three goals each! Villa without Grealish are no better than either of those sides.

Instead of making a bet on Leicester City in a match Crystal Palace will probably find a way to secure a point in, I'll instead take Kelechi Iheanacho to keep scoring. He's +330 to be the first goalscorer and +114 to score at any time. Including the FA Cup, he has eight goals in his last six starts, while Palace have given up four goals in recent matches against Chelsea and Tottenham. 

THE BETS

Everton win or draw against Arsenal +102

Wolves/Burnley over 2.5 goals +128

West Brom to win or draw against Aston Villa +105

Kelechi Iheanacho to score against Palace +114

Parlay: West Brom -1.75 (+1600), Brighton -1.5 (+220) = +5340

BET SLIP