Betting on Premier League: Gameweek 36
2021-05-12 05:05

There's no break in Premier League action, and if you want midweek betting suggestions, I covered my favorite plays last week. I think Everton are in a good spot for revenge at Aston Villa, and I'm leaning more toward Liverpool because, in addition to a Harry Maguire injury, they've had a lot of matches, even though everyone was rested Tuesday.

As the season comes to a close, I'd monitor teams with nothing to play for. It didn't hurt Wolves in their match against Brighton, but it's something that'll likely lead to more upsets. In addition to Wolves coming from a goal down to beat Brighton because of a red card, Newcastle, Leeds, Chelsea and Everton also sealed upsets the last few days. 

Given the heavy schedule, more upsets are almost a given, though good luck picking which teams will be the ones stealing three points.

THE WEEK AHEAD

The new gameweek starts with Premier League winners Manchester City, who claimed the title after Manchester United fell Tuesday. Still, after some rest, I think Pep Guardiola will use his top squad, meaning win to nil at +105 is in play. That being said, I wouldn't consider this for any other team. Newcastle have been a mystery the last couple matches, looking incompetent against Arsenal before completely dismantling Leicester. While they've played well more often than not over the last couple months, I'd rather lean on City to control the match. If you want to go big, Manchester City -2.5 is +210.

Saturday is a weird slate of three matches between teams that don't have a clear edge over each other, which usually means something weird will happen. Leeds are close to full strength and a +143 favorite at Burnley, but neither the matchup nor odds are great. They usually play down to their competition because they love to pressure high-level teams that prefer to play possession. That's how they beat Man City and Tottenham, among others, in recent matchups. Burnley play the opposite of those teams, and while Leeds won the first meeting 1-0, Burnley had two more shots on target (six to four).

I think there's more value on Fulham as a +245 underdog against Southampton. They aren't playing well and have nothing to play for since they're already relegated, but I'm not sure Southampton should be this big of a favorite. The Saints similarly have nothing to play for, and even if guys like Danny Ings start again on short rest, it's not enough to bet on them as a sizable favorite.

For Sunday, it's three big favorites and a game between Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, who both play midweek. On initial look, Villa are probably the play as a +135 favorite, but again, it's hard to bet a match when both teams have games before that. Villa are the better team, won the first meeting 3-0 and have been better away from home, but I can't recommend taking them on the moneyline just yet. 

I'd rather bet on a Tottenham bounce back against what was a lucky Wolves side over the weekend. With nothing to play for, Nuno Espirito Santo used maybe his youngest lineup of the season against Brighton, giving the likes of Max Kilman, Rayan Ait-Nouri, Morgan Gibbs-White and Fabio Silva all starts. If it wasn't for an early second-half red card, Wolves probably would've lost, which is why I'm going Tottenham, who at least have a chance to finish top six. They've won five of their last six at home, three of them to-nil, which is why I'm taking Spurs win to nil at +132. I don't like Tottenham's back line as a whole, but those home numbers are reason enough to take this bet.

The other two matches are also great options for a win to nil bet. Liverpool will hopefully be rested after their midweek match against Man United, though Jurgen Klopp doesn't rotate his team a ton. They're noticeably better when Fabinho is in the midfield, which is something I'd consider waiting to bet until the lineups come out. As for West Brom, they were officially relegated after their most recent loss. 

It's the same situation for Everton at home against Sheffield United, who haven't scored in four of their last five. Of course, there has to be some trepidation with the Toffees, who have one win in their last 10 home matches and are another team that plays down to competition. 

Either way, Liverpool win to nil is +128 and Everton win to nil is +112. If you want a Merseyside moneyline parlay, that would come out to -125, but I'd rather do the separate bets because of Everton's general unreliableness.

THE BETS

Manchester City win to nil against Newcastle +105

Tottenham win to nil against Wolves +132

Liverpool win to nil against West Brom +128

Parlay: Aston Villa win or draw against Palace (-245), Burnley win or draw against Leeds (-167) = +126

BET SLIP