MLB Betting: Futures Update
2021-06-15 00:36

I am going to cover last month's article which was written on April 26th and then update with the current odds for Mid-June and see where things have changed.

AL MVP

Mike Trout was +225, but went down with an injury and is now +3300

Shohei Ohtani  was +1000 (+2350 Opening Day, was +5000 in some places during March), but is now the leader at +150. I'm glad to have a position on him at great odds. What he is doing is incredible, but if the Angels do not make the playoffs or he gets hurt these odds will evaporate.  Because of his injury history and the team, I would not buy in at +150.

Alex Bregman was +1300, now +5000

Byron Buxton was +1500, now +2000 but got hurt and the Twins are baseball's biggest disappointment.

Jose Ramirez was +1500, now +4000. I'm actually a buyer on Ramirez at +4000. The Indians have a real shot to make the playoffs and if you look at his last 162 games he has posted the highest WAR in baseball at 8.4.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was +1800, now +175. I love Vladdy Jr, but he did benefit from the park in Dunedin. As I wrote last month, once this got into triple digits I would pass.

AL CY YOUNG

Gerrit Cole was +300, now -139. Cole has pitched like a Cy Young winner, but the Yankees are hovering around .500 and there are too many candidates on winning teams for me to buy in at that price.

Shane Bieber was +400, now +600.  

Tyler Glasnow was +650, now +650. I was on him last month and at this price, I am even more considering the Rays are one of the best teams in baseball.   

Lucas Giolito was +900, now +5000. Too inconsistent and other pitchers on his own team have been better.

Lance Lynn was +1000, +900. I think Glasnow is the guy to target here, but Lynn has been a solid workhorse on this White Sox team that has overcome a lot of injuries.

Other notables

Chris Bassitt +8000

Aaron Civale +6000

Do I think either of them will win the AL Cy Young? No. But at these odds, either one to easily vault into the top 5 for the award.

NL MVP

Ronald Acuna Jr was +375, now +400. Not much movement on Acuna from late April. The Braves' offense is one of the best in baseball, but their pitching is not. Until that gets fixed, I am not buying on Acuna for MVP.

Juan Soto was +850, now +2500. The Nationals have fallen out of contention and Soto has been quiet thus far.

Mookie Betts was +900, now +3000. The Dodgers have not played up to expectations and he has been in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries.

Fernando Tatis Jr was +1000, now +400. The most electrifying man in baseball but carries the injury tag with him. I am a huge fan of Tatis, but the value is gone at +400.

Jacob deGrom was +1500, now +200. I wrote about deGrom last month being a steal at +1500. The Mets are now in 1st place and playing good baseball. The value is gone and while I don't expect him to win MVP, I am not surprised that a ton of money has come flowing in on him.

Other Notables

Nick Castellanos +2500 If Acuna and Tatis continue to miss time with injuries, he could slide into this race and cut his odds significantly in the next month.

Max Muncy +10,000 He has been the Dodgers best hitter.

Jake Cronenworth +10,000

NL CY YOUNG

Jacob deGrom was +275, now -225. Even with the recent injury news, I do not see how he does not win the Cy Young unless there is significant time missed.

Corbin Burnes was +600 (opened at +4000), now +850.  More of a sign that deGrom has separated himself from the pack.

Trevor Bauer was +750, now +3600. Dodgers still should win 95 games, but he has struggled some lately also.

Max Scherzer was +1000, now +2500. Nationals are fading and Scherzer could end up getting traded to the American League.

Walker Buehler was +1000, now +3600. See Bauer. Same situation in that the Dodgers have been neck and neck with the Giants and Padres all year.

Other notables

Kevin Gausman +2200. Legit candidate if deGrom misses significant time with injury as the Giants look like they are going to be players for the rest of the season.

WORLD SERIES

We are now 40 percent through the baseball season and can start to tell who are going to be sellers at the July trading deadline. This means we also have to know who the buyers will be and who will have the most ammunition to acquire talent.

Last month I mentioned the Astros +1600, Rays +2500, and Brewers +4000 as targets. The Astros have the hitting and the starting pitching, but their bullpen has been awful. I would still have confidence that they are able to acquire some bullpen help. Their odds are still around +1600.

The Rays have dropped to +1400 to +1600 and I think they should be closer to +750 so I would continue to bet on them. The Brewers' offense struggled a lot but has recently come back to life. They are in desperate need of a trade (Mitch Haniger, Adam Frazier?).  They were at +4000, but are now down to +2200 so if you bought in last month you see a nice profit.

The Giants are at +3000 to +4000 which are great odds. I do not think they can win the World Series, but their price should be more in the +1700-+2000 range. The Yankees have gone from +350 to +650 and now +1200. They are barely over .500 and I can see them going to +1800.  

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